Retail sales to the rescue

Retail sales are broadly defined as the sale of durable and non-durable goods by domestic retail establishments (including on-line) to domestic households and tourists. For most developed and emerging market economies retail sales are an important component of personal consumption and thus of overall GDP and historically growth in the global volume of retail sales has closely correlated with global

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Three Themes: Low FX vol, EM contagion and global growth

We touch on three key themes this week, which we will further explore in forthcoming FIRMS reports. Theme 1: Low FX volatility Despite significant event risk, including ongoing China-US trade negotiations and Brexit, and central banks’ dovish shift in recent weeks, volatility in major currency pairs – with the exception of the Turkish Lira, Brazilian Real and Argentine Peso –

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Brexit: Another 48 hours

The House of Commons (HoC), the lower house of parliament, will on 12th March hold a legally-binding vote on whether to approve Prime Minister May’s draft Brexit deal – the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the UK’s future EU relationship. We expect the outcome of this critical vote to be closer than on 15th January when an all-time high

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Nominal Effective Exchange Rates: Monthly seasonal patterns

This report examines the monthly seasonal patterns of 32 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2011, using 76,600 daily data points. The NEER provides a more accurate overall picture (than the exchange rate versus the Dollar or other individual currencies) of a country’s currency and trade competitiveness and risks of imported inflation/deflation and is therefore an

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What you may have missed and why it matters

Price action in markets deprived of tier-one macro data over the Christmas and New Year period has centred on acute volatility in US and global equities, with sizeable intra-day swings including a temporary flash crash in the USD/JPY cross below 105 on 3rd January. The US government shutdown, ongoing concerns about the US-China trade war, the slowdown in global economic

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