4X Global Research Forecasting Track Record

4X Global Research (4XGR), a fully independent yet well connected London-based research consultancy, has since its inception in 2016 consistently posted a strong forecasting track record for currencies, rates as well as macroeconomic and political developments which is detailed below. This underscores its rigorous top-down approach, rooted in both a detailed qualitative assessment of emerging and G20 fixed income markets

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Global growth is slowing, not in recession

A theme which has gained increasing traction is that the world economy could once again go into recession, with some reports that global growth is already in recessionary territory. At a country-level, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted (real) GDP growth. By this metrics Italy was in recession in H2 2018 while Germany avoided

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Draghi’s ECB legacy – stable Euro, weak inflation

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will step down at the end of his eight-year term on 31 October. Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF – which has implicitly called for looser global monetary policy – will take over pending European Parliamentary approval. The ECB’s dovish turn at its 6th June policy meeting, Draghi’s talk of possible monetary policy

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Retail sales to the rescue

Retail sales are broadly defined as the sale of durable and non-durable goods by domestic retail establishments (including on-line) to domestic households and tourists. For most developed and emerging market economies retail sales are an important component of personal consumption and thus of overall GDP and historically growth in the global volume of retail sales has closely correlated with global

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