The key quartet: US income, confidence, net worth and consumption

In US Consumer – From King to Prince (8 October 2019), we argued that “the recent fall in US consumer confidence, slowdown in income and wage growth and jitters in US equity markets suggest that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) growth remained weak in September and thus slowed materially in Q3” (September data are due on 31st October). Weak September retail

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Global growth is slowing, not in recession

A theme which has gained increasing traction is that the world economy could once again go into recession, with some reports that global growth is already in recessionary territory. At a country-level, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted (real) GDP growth. By this metrics Italy was in recession in H2 2018 while Germany avoided

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Retail sales to the rescue

Retail sales are broadly defined as the sale of durable and non-durable goods by domestic retail establishments (including on-line) to domestic households and tourists. For most developed and emerging market economies retail sales are an important component of personal consumption and thus of overall GDP and historically growth in the global volume of retail sales has closely correlated with global

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Three Themes: Low FX vol, EM contagion and global growth

We touch on three key themes this week, which we will further explore in forthcoming FIRMS reports. Theme 1: Low FX volatility Despite significant event risk, including ongoing China-US trade negotiations and Brexit, and central banks’ dovish shift in recent weeks, volatility in major currency pairs – with the exception of the Turkish Lira, Brazilian Real and Argentine Peso –

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