Nominal Effective Exchange Rate seasonality November & December update

This report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 32 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to May 2010, using over 90,000 daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see Nominal Effective Exchange Rates: Monthly seasonal patterns, 10 January 2019). A number of factors can drive currency seasonality, including underlying seasonal

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Lira collapse post-mortem: Contagion lite

Since 5th August the Turkish Lira is down about 17% versus the Dollar and 15% in nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) terms and the concern remains that any further Lira depreciation will again spread to other high-yielding emerging market currencies. Conversely, recent precedent suggests that renewed Lira weakness would result in FX flows to traditional safe-haven currencies – the Japanese

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