Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters

Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central banks to covid-19 related developments. Only a handful of currencies appreciated by more than 1% vs the Dollar last week and no major currency depreciated by more than

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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty

Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of currencies in Latin America. However this is not a case of more confident financial market participants finding their feet, in our

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Conservative FX markets testing (some) extremes

    Read the full article here     Olivier DesbarresOlivier is an economist, rates & FX strategist and entrepreneur with over 21 years experience in financial markets. He is Director and Founder of 4X Global Research, an independent, London-based consultancy which provides institutional and corporate clients with substantive research, high-quality analysis and insight on emerging and G20 economies and

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Global growth shaken, central banks stirred

The drastic measures which governments across the world have taken so far to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus have few precedents outside of war times and therefore quantifying their economic, financial and social impact remains challenging. However, there is little doubt that economic activity in China, the epicentre of the epidemic, has slowed sharply. Disruptions and delays to international

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Virus, volatility and valuations

In reaction to the coronavirus epidemic governments across the world have enacted measures unprecedented in recent decades, including closing national borders, setting up quarantine zones, restricting travel and closing factories and schools. Economic activity in China has slowed sharply and disruptions to international supply chains are impacting global trade and production with the slump in tourism heaping further pressure on

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What next for Asian currencies

Note that I will be speaking on the currency panel at the 5th Global Independent Research Conference on 3rd February in London (1 Wimpole Street). We will be discussing the outlook for i) Asian and EM currencies, including the Renminbi, ii) developed market currencies, including the Euro and Sterling, iii) depressed global FX volatility, iv) central bank monetary policy and

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Asian currencies showing some viral resistance

Note that I will be speaking on the currency panel at the 5th Global Independent Research Conference on 3rd February in London (1 Wimpole Street). Independent research providers will be debating their views on a range of investment topics through panel discussions. This conference is for the buy-side community including Portfolio Managers, Chief Investment Officers, Fund Managers, Strategists, Analysts and

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Bank of England’s dovish warning bells ring true

    Read the full research piece here     Olivier DesbarresOlivier is an economist, rates & FX strategist and entrepreneur with over 21 years experience in financial markets. He is Director and Founder of 4X Global Research, an independent, London-based consultancy which provides institutional and corporate clients with substantive research, high-quality analysis and insight on emerging and G20 economies

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