Sterling leads Euro 1-0 at half-time in dull encounter but could extend advantage

With England due to play Germany in the last-16 round of the Euro Championships in a few hours time, now is a good time to revisit the Sterling-Euro exchange rate. Football fans will be hoping for a pulsating sporting encounter rich in history while traders will be hoping that the GBP/EUR cross, which is currently trading in the middle of

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Dollar – Diversification, rotation and valuations

Media and analyst reports focussing on the scope for further US Dollar weakness and Emerging Market currency outperformance have continued to proliferate in the past month. The consensus view is still seemingly that a Democratic administration will fuel large US twin deficits and expectations of higher domestics inflation while Fed will keep rates on hold, eroding the value of Dollar

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Sunday bloody Sunday

Sterling underperformed in September, in line with our bearish forecast (UK & Sterling facing potential quadruple whammy, 4th September 2020). It gradually recovered from 22nd September, appreciated throughout October and peaked on 27th November. Sterling NEER has since weakened about 2.4% to an 11-week low. The sell-off at the turn of December was exacerbated by all four of the United

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Time is priceless but has a steep cost

While some countries, including Sweden and United states, have eschewed national lockdowns over the past nine months or so the vast majority have adopted unprecedented measures to deal with a once in a century pandemic which has so far cost almost 1.4 million lives. The strategy has invariably been a simple yet complex one – to save lives – but

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Event risk and market volatility: Partners in crime

Market volatility has been reasonably subdued in recent weeks, despite acute event (and macro data) risk in the next four weeks, including of course US presidential elections on 3rd November, and a number of significant macro, policy and geopolitical developments. In the past month volatility in major developed and emerging market currencies versus the US Dollar has only risen materially

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