Major economies & currencies – What to look out for and why it matters

Price action in major currencies was again subdued last week. With few tier-one macro data releases for markets to trade off the focus was on the reaction function of governments and central banks to covid-19 related developments. Only a handful of currencies appreciated by more than 1% vs the Dollar last week and no major currency depreciated by more than

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Risk aversion, not panic, in face of uncertainty

Major currencies, equity markets and the price of crude oil since 8th June – the cycle low in the US Dollar – have exhibited reasonably limited directionality, narrow trading ranges and very low volatility, with the notable exception of currencies in Latin America. However this is not a case of more confident financial market participants finding their feet, in our

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United Kingdom: Back to 1999… and to the future

Part Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by the British government, which continues to pump tens of billions into the economy via a vast array of measures, including a furlough scheme, to support household disposable incomes and ultimately consumption and GDP growth. Households’ limited opportunities to spend,

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US GDP growth – One extreme to another

The BEA will release tomorrow its first estimate of US GDP growth in Q1. Consensus estimate for the quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth is -4.0%. If correct this would imply that growth in Q3 and Q4 2019 was effectively wiped out and that GDP in Q1 2020 shrank by annualised $200bn. The estimates span from -0.3% to -10% –

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