Renminbi sticking to well trodden path

We noted in “Renminbi depreciation true to form” (6 June 2019) that history was repeating itself, with the Renminbi NEER having weakened in April-June as it had done in May-July 2018, albeit at a more modest pace (see figure 1). This was a clear indication in our view that “Chinese policy-makers were once again using Renminbi depreciation as both a

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Bank of Korea’s steady hand on Won

The Korean Won Nominal Effective Exchange Rate has appreciated 4.7% since the 41-month low recorded on 12th August to a six-month high, with the Won up against the currencies of Korea’s largest trading partners, namely the Yen, Euro, Renminbi and Dollar. A common view is that, with China accounting for about a third of Korea’s total trade, day-to-day speculative flows

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The key quartet: US income, confidence, net worth and consumption

In US Consumer – From King to Prince (8 October 2019), we argued that “the recent fall in US consumer confidence, slowdown in income and wage growth and jitters in US equity markets suggest that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) growth remained weak in September and thus slowed materially in Q3” (September data are due on 31st October). Weak September retail

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4X Global Research Forecasting Track Record

4X Global Research (4XGR), a fully independent yet well connected London-based research consultancy, has since its inception in 2016 consistently posted a strong forecasting track record for currencies, rates as well as macroeconomic and political developments which is detailed below. This underscores its rigorous top-down approach, rooted in both a detailed qualitative assessment of emerging and G20 fixed income markets

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Global growth is slowing, not in recession

A theme which has gained increasing traction is that the world economy could once again go into recession, with some reports that global growth is already in recessionary territory. At a country-level, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted (real) GDP growth. By this metrics Italy was in recession in H2 2018 while Germany avoided

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