Brexit: Another 48 hours

The House of Commons (HoC), the lower house of parliament, will on 12th March hold a legally-binding vote on whether to approve Prime Minister May’s draft Brexit deal – the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the UK’s future EU relationship. We expect the outcome of this critical vote to be closer than on 15th January when an all-time high

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Nominal Effective Exchange Rates: Monthly seasonal patterns

This report examines the monthly seasonal patterns of 32 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to January 2011, using 76,600 daily data points. The NEER provides a more accurate overall picture (than the exchange rate versus the Dollar or other individual currencies) of a country’s currency and trade competitiveness and risks of imported inflation/deflation and is therefore an

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What you may have missed and why it matters

Price action in markets deprived of tier-one macro data over the Christmas and New Year period has centred on acute volatility in US and global equities, with sizeable intra-day swings including a temporary flash crash in the USD/JPY cross below 105 on 3rd January. The US government shutdown, ongoing concerns about the US-China trade war, the slowdown in global economic

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Global central bank rate hikes: part solution, part problem

Too little attention has been paid to the global rise in central bank policy rates in the past 6-7 months and its implications for economic growth, CPI-inflation and currency and rates markets. Central bank rate hikes in Emerging Market (EM) economies, along in some cases with central bank FX intervention and other policy measures, have helped stabilise under-pressure currencies, particularly

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Tuesday 11th December: Brexit D-Day

In the past three weeks, British and European Union (EU) negotiators have formally reached an agreement on a draft “Brexit deal”, in practise two separate albeit inter-linked documents: 1) The terms and conditions of the UK’s exit from the EU – the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and 2) The non-legally binding “Political Declaration on the UK’s future relationship with

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