Lira collapse post-mortem: Contagion lite

Since 5th August the Turkish Lira is down about 17% versus the Dollar and 15% in nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) terms and the concern remains that any further Lira depreciation will again spread to other high-yielding emerging market currencies. Conversely, recent precedent suggests that renewed Lira weakness would result in FX flows to traditional safe-haven currencies – the Japanese

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Central Banks’ Guns & Roses (and inaction)

In One extreme to another: A price worth paying? (6 July 2018), I argued that in recent years it had been incumbent on governments to tackle the negative side-effects of central banks’ arguably extreme, post-financial crisis measures. Unsurprisingly perhaps heads of state have if anything become more vocal and prominent, with in particular US President Trump continuing to dominate headlines

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One extreme to another: A price worth paying?

Developed and emerging market central banks have started to “normalise” monetary policy, albeit at a slow pace. However, they have been largely powerless to deal with the negative side-effects of their arguably extreme, post-financial crisis measures. It has thus been incumbent in recent years on governments to tackle issues such as modest wage growth and income inequality, as well as

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Not all weeks are made the same

The next eight days could prove pivotal for global markets. At the very least the G7 Leaders Summit (8-9 June) and meeting between Trump and Kim Jong un (12th June), Fed and ECB meetings and tier-1 macro data could set the tone near-term for currencies which in recent weeks have alternated between schizophrenic and composed. G7 Summits have in recent

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