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Note that I will be speaking on the currency panel at the 5th Global Independent Research Conference on 3rd February in London (1 Wimpole Street). We will be discussing the outlook for i) Asian and EM currencies, including the Renminbi, ii) developed market currencies, including the Euro and Sterling, iii) depressed global FX volatility, iv) central bank monetary policy and
Read moreNote that I will be speaking on the currency panel at the 5th Global Independent Research Conference on 3rd February in London (1 Wimpole Street). Independent research providers will be debating their views on a range of investment topics through panel discussions. This conference is for the buy-side community including Portfolio Managers, Chief Investment Officers, Fund Managers, Strategists, Analysts and
Read moreRead the full research piece here Olivier DesbarresOlivier is an economist and rates & FX strategist with over 22 years experience in financial markets. He is Director and Founder of 4X Global Research, an independent, London-based consultancy which provides institutional and corporate clients with substantive research, high-quality analysis and insight on emerging and G20 economies and
Read moreFinancial-market post-mortems for 2019 are out and the bottom line is that the trade was to be long pretty much everything – including US and global equities, bonds and commodities (bar natural gas) – but short equity and FX volatility. Trading FX last year was indeed an exercise in both patience and timing with depressed currency volatility going hand-in-hand with
Read moreSterling has appreciated 1.5% in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate terms since 26th November to a 7-month high, a notable move in a world of depressed currency volatility. Markets have seemingly taken comfort from the (modest) widening of the gap between the ruling Conservative Party and opposition Labour party in opinion polls to about 10pp and YouGov predicting that Prime Minister
Read moreThis report updates the monthly seasonal patterns of 32 major Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs) going back to May 2010, using over 90,000 daily data points with trade-weights derived from the BIS (April 2019) and national central banks (see Nominal Effective Exchange Rates: Monthly seasonal patterns, 10 January 2019). A number of factors can drive currency seasonality, including underlying seasonal
Read moreGlobal FX volatility has fallen further in the past month to its lowest level since September 2014 according to our estimate (see Figure 1). Volatility in most major currencies has either fallen or only increased marginally in the past month and is now very low relative to the past 12 months. Sterling, the Brazilian Real and Turkish Lira have recorded
Read moreThis is a summary – Read the full research piece here Olivier DesbarresOlivier is an economist and rates & FX strategist with over 22 years experience in financial markets. He is Director and Founder of 4X Global Research, an independent, London-based consultancy which provides institutional and corporate clients with substantive research, high-quality analysis and insight on emerging and
Read moreEuropean Central Bank President Mario Draghi will step down at the end of his eight-year term on 31 October. Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF – which has implicitly called for looser global monetary policy – will take over pending European Parliamentary approval. The ECB’s dovish turn at its 6th June policy meeting, Draghi’s talk of possible monetary policy
Read moreIt is now three years since the referendum on 23rd June 2016 in which 52% of the British electorate voted for the UK to exit the EU. The issue of whether, when and how the UK will leave the EU has shaped the UK’s political agenda and economic and social landscape. The chronic uncertainty associated with Brexit has had a
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