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The volume of retail sales – the value of the sale of goods adjusted for domestic inflation – rose a faster-than-expected 14% mom in June. In level terms UK retail sales were only 1% below the average recorded in the 12 months to February 2020. This points to a very rapid recovery in domestic economic activity, albeit from a
Read morePart Two of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the critical role played by the British government, which continues to pump tens of billions into the economy via a vast array of measures, including a furlough scheme, to support household disposable incomes and ultimately consumption and GDP growth. Households’ limited opportunities to spend,
Read morePart One of this Five-part series of Insights into the UK economy and financial markets examines the devastating impact which the national lockdown – introduced on 23rd March – has had on domestic economic activity and the implications for the UK (and other major economies) going forward. Records tumbled in April, for all the wrong reasons, with the GDP contraction
Read moreThe consensus forecast is that GDP contracted in many major economies in Q1 and will most definitely contract in Q2 as a result of the negative impact of national lockdowns on supply and demand. The implication is that these economies will be in recession – defined at a country level as two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. A
Read moreRead the full research piece here Olivier DesbarresOlivier is an economist and rates & FX strategist with over 22 years experience in financial markets. He is Director and Founder of 4X Global Research, an independent, London-based consultancy which provides institutional and corporate clients with substantive research, high-quality analysis and insight on emerging and G20 economies and
Read moreSterling has appreciated 1.5% in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate terms since 26th November to a 7-month high, a notable move in a world of depressed currency volatility. Markets have seemingly taken comfort from the (modest) widening of the gap between the ruling Conservative Party and opposition Labour party in opinion polls to about 10pp and YouGov predicting that Prime Minister
Read moreIt is now three years since the referendum on 23rd June 2016 in which 52% of the British electorate voted for the UK to exit the EU. The issue of whether, when and how the UK will leave the EU has shaped the UK’s political agenda and economic and social landscape. The chronic uncertainty associated with Brexit has had a
Read moreMuch has happened in the past two months and yet the UK finds itself in a similar situation as in mid-October 2018 when it had just over five months to get a deal through parliament before its (original) exit date from the EU on 29th March. We have so far correctly forecast that the UK and EU would reach an
Read morePrime Minister May Theresa May yesterday evening survived a Conservative Party leadership vote, in line with our forecast, by 200 votes to 117. She will likely remain in office but it is debatable whether she is still in power. We now expect the delayed House of Commons’ vote on the draft Brexit deal to take place in the new year
Read moreIn the past three weeks, British and European Union (EU) negotiators have formally reached an agreement on a draft “Brexit deal”, in practise two separate albeit inter-linked documents: 1) The terms and conditions of the UK’s exit from the EU – the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and 2) The non-legally binding “Political Declaration on the UK’s future relationship with
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