Just another WordPress site
Our measure of global headline CPI-inflation rose further in September to 3.7% yoy but the 0.17pp increase was entirely due to the 0.27pp rise in CPI-inflation in developed economies to a 13-year high of about 3.9% yoy. Headline CPI-inflation in EM economies was unchanged in September at about 3.3% yoy, with the fall in CPI-inflation in China and in particular
Read moreI will be speaking on the “Fixed Income and FX” panel at the (virtual) Global Independent Research Conference on 13th October at 12.30 (UK time). Click here for further details. Our measures of global headline and core CPI-inflation – weighted averages of inflation in 32 major developed and Emerging Market (EM) economies which account for over 90% of world GDP
Read moreI will be speaking on the “Fixed Income and FX” panel at the (virtual) Global Independent Research Conference on 13th October at 12.30 (UK time). Click here for further details. We turned bullish GBP/EUR in late-June and re-reiterated our constructive view in mid-July and early-August and the cross duly hit a 76-week high of about 1.182 on 11th August. In
Read moreUS macro data, including measures of US inflation, non-farm employment, retail sales, manufacturing output, ISM PMIs and consumer confidence indices, have been far less volatile since the peak in global risk aversion in March-April 2020 when the first national lockdowns decimated global growth. However, volatility in most of these monthly metrics remains high relative to history. This is particularly true
Read moreIn the past couple of months governments in Asia-Pacific have materially accelerated the administration of Covid-19 vaccines. But because of low starting points, vaccination rates remain low compared to the EU, US and UK and even a number EM economies (including Turkey). The exceptions are Korea, Malaysia and Japan which have now administered a similar number of doses per capita
Read moreFederal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell’s pre-prepared opening speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday afternoon was a key litmus test for the central bank. Powell took yet another small step towards an eventual tapering this year of the Fed’s asset purchases and a tightening of arguably extremely loose monetary policy while pouring cold water on any talk of policy
Read moreGlobal FX volatility – as measured by the 5-day Standard Deviation (SD) in the daily percentage change in the spot (closing) price of a turnover-weighted basket of 32 major currency pairs against the US Dollar – remains depressed by historical standards. While global FX volatility rose slightly on 11th August to about 0.32 SD following the release of US CPI-inflation
Read moreUS Treasury yields and the Dollar, perhaps unsurprisingly, have risen in the wake of today’s strong US labour market report. However, we think it would be a stretch to argue that markets have “hard-baked” in their view that the Federal Reserve will announce its tapering plans potentially as early as the Jackson Jackson Hole Symposium on 26-28 August. A case
Read moreIn the past fortnight US Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum have oscillated in reasonably wide ranges, with the highs coinciding with the release on 13th July of US CPI-inflation data. The shape of the yield curve today is almost the same as it was on 8th July. The US rates market has tentatively found its feet, for now at
Read moreDespite buoyant domestic expectations (or at least hope) football will not be coming home after the England football team lost on penalties to Italy in Sunday’s final of the Euro Championship but Sterling is arguably coming home, albeit slowly. The GBP/EUR cross has this week traded mostly above 1.17, a level which has proven hard to break. GBP/EUR is up
Read more