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In the past three weeks, British and European Union (EU) negotiators have formally reached an agreement on a draft “Brexit deal”, in practise two separate albeit inter-linked documents: 1) The terms and conditions of the UK’s exit from the EU – the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and 2) The non-legally binding “Political Declaration on the UK’s future relationship with
Read moreIn this FIRMS report we take a closer look at the Dollar, Sterling, high-yielding currencies and low-yielding Asian currencies, including the Chinese Renminbi. This is a summary – Read the full research piece here
Read more873 days after the referendum on 23rd June 2016, the British government announced yesterday that UK and EU negotiators had reached a draft agreement on the terms and conditions of i) the UK’s exit from the EU and ii) the outline of the UK’s future relationship with the EU beyond 29th March 2019. The first hurdle which Prime Minister May
Read moreNote: I will be in Singapore from 1st to 6th November. Please contact me at odesbarres@4xgr.com or on +44 7855 254 199 for a one-on-one meeting. Historically, central banks’ policy rates have tended to track core CPI-inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rather than headline CPI-inflation, resulting in a broadly stable global “core” real policy rate.
Read moreThis is a summary – Read the full research piece here
Read moreThis is a summary – Read the full research piece here
Read moreFX market turbulence in August, led by sharp moves in emerging market currencies, has so far in September given way to more placid price action. The Dollar has weakened, Nordic and in particular high-yielding emerging market currencies have on the whole appreciated while Asian currencies have underperformed. Since 4th September, all major currencies, bar the Philippines Peso, Yen, Indian Rupee
Read moreIn principle, the United Kingdom (UK) will officially cease to be a member of the European Union (EU) on 29th March 2019, regardless of whether: 1) The UK and EU reach agreement on the terms and conditions of the UK’s exit from the EU (the “Withdrawal Agreement”) and importantly of the UK’s new deal with the EU and; 2) The
Read moreSo far this year we have identified six broad phases for the US Dollar which have lasted from a couple of weeks to two-and-a-half months. This provides a useful starting point to analyse how the Dollar, Renminbi and major currency groupings, including developed and EM currencies and low-and high-yielders, have performed during these distinct phases and how they may fare
Read moreSince 5th August the Turkish Lira is down about 17% versus the Dollar and 15% in nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) terms and the concern remains that any further Lira depreciation will again spread to other high-yielding emerging market currencies. Conversely, recent precedent suggests that renewed Lira weakness would result in FX flows to traditional safe-haven currencies – the Japanese
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